While assessment of team-level marketing performance for a professional sport franchise is important for both the team marketer and the researcher to develop a marketing strategy and understand marketing performance, no evidence using a full set of teams for a long period of time currently exists. We propose that marketing performance can be estimated with a stochastic frontier model. Using twenty seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance data, we estimate the frontier attendance (i.e., the maximal Which Professional Sport Team Has the Best Marketing Performance in Driving Attendance? The Stochastic Frontier Approach attendance a team can reach) after controlling for factors unrelated to marketing, and we argue that the efficiency (i.e., the difference between the frontier and the actual attendance) represents the team’s marketing performance. We also test whether our estimates capture marketing performance successfully by using the honeymoon and novelty effects, both of which are clearly shown in our estimates.
This study investigates the efficiency of National Football League betting markets from 2002 to 2015 utilizing three rest patterns (Thursday Night Football, post-bye week, and regularly scheduled games). The logistic model indicates that inefficiencies due to the rest patterns occurred in Thursday Night Football and post-bye week games, with bettors expecting high rates of return. The forecast errors also provide evidence that point spreads did not correctly forecast future outcomes. Nevertheless, this deviation from efficiency was not sufficient to make positive returns from Thursday Night Football when teams of record were tested separately. A bias from post-bye week games remained profitable across the studied years, suggesting previously confirmed biases were not temporary. Although further analyses with a larger sample size are needed to confirm whether Thursday Night Football creates a bias consistently, this study suggests that the betting market misses important information about rest intervals and team performance.
How Much Is A Goal in the Football Championship Worth? Match Results and Stock Price Reaction
Giuseppe Galloppo and Claudio Boido
In this paper, we show the relationship between the outcome of football events and stock returns, based on the thesis that sport results affect investor sentiment. We analyzed stock price performance indicators and football results by taking 25 publicly listed soccer companies into account. The most extensive database ever used (11,977 matches) was considered. It includes football results in the National Championship, National Cup, and Continental Cups in the period between the 2003–2004 and the 2014–2015 seasons. The analysis revealed the economic and significant statistical effects on stock prices irrespective of the results of the matches. This conclusion is valid for all analyzed countries and competition types. We also showed that stock market reactions are larger in some local markets than in others. More-over, we examined the relationship between the number of goals scored and league stages effects, finding meaningful evidence of behavioral finance on investment decision-making processes.